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Mortality modeling

Lee-Carter and the macroeconomy
Authors: Katja Hanewald;

Mortality modeling

Abstract

Using data for six OECD countries, this paper studies the effect of macroeconomic conditions on the mortality index kt in the well-known Lee-Carter model. Significant correlations are found with real GDP growth rates in Australia, Canada, and the United States, and with unemployment rate changes in Japan, for the period 1950–2005. In recent years, the relationship between the state of the economy and mortality is found to change from procyclical to countercyclical in all six countries. Based on these findings, variants of the Lee-Carter model are proposed that capture a substantial fraction of the variation in the mortality index.

Keywords

time series model, 330 Wirtschaft, Demography, Lee-Carter, business cycle, time series model, Lee-Carter, FOS: Sociology, business cycle, Demography, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:C32, jel: jel:I12, jel: jel:J11

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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