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Mean Reversion Models for Weather Derivatives

Authors: Petschel, Ben;

Mean Reversion Models for Weather Derivatives

Abstract

Weather derivatives are a new type of financial contract that derive their value from weather measurements over the period of the contract. In this thesis we focus on temperature-based Cooling Degree Day (CDD) and Heating Degree Day (HDD) contracts, developing continuous time stochastic mean reversion models for temperature based on the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. In the first half of the thesis, we consider models with Brownian motion as the driving noise, firstly in the scalar case, both for constant volatility and for seasonal volatility, and then generalize to the vector case in order to simultaneously model several correlated weather variables. In each case, we fit the models to temperature data from Brisbane and Melbourne. We go on to develop methods of estimating the price of some CDD and HDD contracts, comparing the estimates with historical simulations. In the second half of the thesis, we extend the model to include Poisson jumps. We develop several methods for approximating the Fourier transforms that give the transition probability densities, comparing the efficiency and accuracy of each, and fit the model parameters to Brisbane and Melbourne temperature data. We conclude by pricing some CDD and HDD contracts under the jump model. The techniques developed in this thesis are valuable in that they are applicable to a much more general range of problems, including interest rates and commodity prices.

Country
Australia
Related Organizations
Keywords

780101 Mathematical sciences, Stochastic models, School of Physical Sciences, Set Theory, Weather derivatives -- Mathematical models, Poisson distribution, Lattices And Combinatorics, 230101 Mathematical Logic, L, 230101 Mathematical Logic, Set Theory, Lattices And Combinatorics

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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