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pmid: 29425246
pmc: PMC5806874
We consider the problem of concurrent portfolio losses in two non-overlapping credit portfolios. In order to explore the full statistical dependence structure of such portfolio losses, we estimate their empirical pairwise copulas. Instead of a Gaussian dependence, we typically find a strong asymmetry in the copulas. Concurrent large portfolio losses are much more likely than small ones. Studying the dependences of these losses as a function of portfolio size, we moreover reveal that not only large portfolios of thousands of contracts, but also medium-sized and small ones with only a few dozens of contracts exhibit notable portfolio loss correlations. Anticipated idiosyncratic effects turn out to be negligible. These are troublesome insights not only for investors in structured fixed-income products, but particularly for the stability of the financial sector.
330, Science, 530, FOS: Economics and business, Humans, Investments, 53, Statistical Finance (q-fin.ST), ddc:530, Q, R, Quantitative Finance - Statistical Finance, Physik (inkl. Astronomie), Mathematical Finance (q-fin.MF), Fakultät für Physik, ddc:53, Quantitative Finance - Mathematical Finance, Medicine, ScholarlyArticle, Research Article, ddc: ddc:530, ddc: ddc:53
330, Science, 530, FOS: Economics and business, Humans, Investments, 53, Statistical Finance (q-fin.ST), ddc:530, Q, R, Quantitative Finance - Statistical Finance, Physik (inkl. Astronomie), Mathematical Finance (q-fin.MF), Fakultät für Physik, ddc:53, Quantitative Finance - Mathematical Finance, Medicine, ScholarlyArticle, Research Article, ddc: ddc:530, ddc: ddc:53
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