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Long-Term and Seasonal Dynamics of Dengue in Iquitos, Peru

Authors: Stoddard, Steven T; Wearing, Helen J; Reiner, Robert C; Morrison, Amy C; Astete, Helvio; Vilcarromero, Stalin; Alvarez, Carlos; +7 Authors

Long-Term and Seasonal Dynamics of Dengue in Iquitos, Peru

Abstract

Long-term disease surveillance data provide a basis for studying drivers of pathogen transmission dynamics. Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease caused by four distinct, but related, viruses (DENV-1-4) that potentially affect over half the world's population. Dengue incidence varies seasonally and on longer time scales, presumably driven by the interaction of climate and host susceptibility. Precise understanding of dengue dynamics is constrained, however, by the relative paucity of laboratory-confirmed longitudinal data.We studied 10 years (2000-2010) of laboratory-confirmed, clinic-based surveillance data collected in Iquitos, Peru. We characterized inter and intra-annual patterns of dengue dynamics on a weekly time scale using wavelet analysis. We explored the relationships of case counts to climatic variables with cross-correlation maps on annual and trimester bases.Transmission was dominated by single serotypes, first DENV-3 (2001-2007) then DENV-4 (2008-2010). After 2003, incidence fluctuated inter-annually with outbreaks usually occurring between October and April. We detected a strong positive autocorrelation in case counts at a lag of ∼ 70 weeks, indicating a shift in the timing of peak incidence year-to-year. All climatic variables showed modest seasonality and correlated weakly with the number of reported dengue cases across a range of time lags. Cases were reduced after citywide insecticide fumigation if conducted early in the transmission season.Dengue case counts peaked seasonally despite limited intra-annual variation in climate conditions. Contrary to expectations for this mosquito-borne disease, no climatic variable considered exhibited a strong relationship with transmission. Vector control operations did, however, appear to have a significant impact on transmission some years. Our results indicate that a complicated interplay of factors underlie DENV transmission in contexts such as Iquitos.

Country
United States
Keywords

Biomedical and clinical sciences, Clinical Sciences, RC955-962, 610, Medical and Health Sciences, Vaccine Related, Dengue, Rare Diseases, Biodefense, Tropical Medicine, Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine, Peru, Animals, Humans, Weather, Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, Prevention, Incidence, Health sciences, Biological Sciences, Dengue Virus, Vector-Borne Diseases, Biological sciences, Emerging Infectious Diseases, Infectious Diseases, Good Health and Well Being, Culicidae, Seasons, Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270, Infection, Research Article

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    popularity
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
103
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 1%
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gold