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The Effect of Learning on Ambiguity Attitudes

Authors: Baillon, Aurélien; Bleichrodt, Han; Keskin, Umut; L’haridon, Olivier; Li, Chen;

The Effect of Learning on Ambiguity Attitudes

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of learning information on people’s attitudes toward ambiguity. We propose a method to separate ambiguity attitudes from subjective probabilities and to decompose ambiguity attitudes into two components. Under models like prospect theory that represent ambiguity through nonadditive decision weights, these components reflect pessimism and likelihood insensitivity. Under multiple priors models, they reflect ambiguity aversion and perceived ambiguity. We apply our method in an experiment where we elicit the ask prices of options with payoffs depending on the returns of initial public offerings (IPOs) on the New York Stock Exchange. IPOs are a natural context to study the effect of learning, as prior information about their returns is unavailable. Subjects perceived substantial ambiguity and they were insensitive to likelihood information. We observed only little pessimism and ambiguity aversion. Subjective probabilities were well calibrated and close to the true frequencies. Subjects’ behavior moved toward expected utility with more information, but substantial deviations remained even in the maximum information condition. Data and the online appendix are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2700 This paper was accepted by Manel Baucells, decision analysis.

Countries
France, France, Netherlands, Turkey
Keywords

Risk, Ambiguity, learning, Decision, Uncertainty, Subjective-Probability, updating, Expected Utility, Expectations, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, Updating, Representation, Choice, ambiguity, Learning, Neo-Additive Weighting, neo-additive weighting, [SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, Prospect-Theory, Model

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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    65
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
65
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 1%
hybrid