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Electronic Journal of Statistics
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
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Article . 2024
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https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2023
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Model averaging: A shrinkage perspective

Model averaging: a shrinkage perspective
Authors: Peng, Jingfu;

Model averaging: A shrinkage perspective

Abstract

Model averaging (MA), a technique for combining estimators from a set of candidate models, has attracted increasing attention in machine learning and statistics. In the existing literature, there is an implicit understanding that MA can be viewed as a form of shrinkage estimation that draws the response vector towards the subspaces spanned by the candidate models. This paper explores this perspective by establishing connections between MA and shrinkage in a linear regression setting with multiple nested models. We first demonstrate that the optimal MA estimator is the best linear estimator with monotonically non-increasing weights in a Gaussian sequence model. The Mallows MA (MMA), which estimates weights by minimizing the Mallows' $C_p$ over the unit simplex, can be viewed as a variation of the sum of a set of positive-part Stein estimators. Indeed, the latter estimator differs from the MMA only in that its optimization of Mallows' $C_p$ is within a suitably relaxed weight set. Motivated by these connections, we develop a novel MA procedure based on a blockwise Stein estimation. The resulting Stein-type MA estimator is asymptotically optimal across a broad parameter space when the variance is known. Numerical results support our theoretical findings. The connections established in this paper may open up new avenues for investigating MA from different perspectives. A discussion on some topics for future research concludes the paper.

Keywords

penalized blockwise Stein rule, Linear regression; mixed models, asymptotic optimality, FOS: Mathematics, model averaging, Stein shrinkage, Mathematics - Statistics Theory, Statistics Theory (math.ST), Nonparametric estimation

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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gold