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Electronic Journal of Statistics
Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Electronic Journal of Statistics
Article . 2019
License: unspecified
Data sources: WU Research
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Electronic Journal of Statistics
Other literature type . 2019
Data sources: Project Euclid
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2017
License: arXiv Non-Exclusive Distribution
Data sources: Datacite
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Order-sensitivity and equivariance of scoring functions

Authors: Fissler, T; Ziegel, JF;

Order-sensitivity and equivariance of scoring functions

Abstract

The relative performance of competing point forecasts is usually measured in terms of loss or scoring functions. It is widely accepted that these scoring function should be strictly consistent in the sense that the expected score is minimized by the correctly specified forecast for a certain statistical functional such as the mean, median, or a certain risk measure. Thus, strict consistency opens the way to meaningful forecast comparison, but is also important in regression and M-estimation. Usually strictly consistent scoring functions for an elicitable functional are not unique. To give guidance on the choice of a scoring function, this paper introduces two additional quality criteria. Order-sensitivity opens the possibility to compare two deliberately misspecified forecasts given that the forecasts are ordered in a certain sense. On the other hand, equivariant scoring functions obey similar equivariance properties as the functional at hand - such as translation invariance or positive homogeneity. In our study, we consider scoring functions for popular functionals, putting special emphasis on vector-valued functionals, e.g. the pair (mean, variance) or (Value at Risk, Expected Shortfall).

45 pages

Countries
Austria, United Kingdom
Keywords

62C99, 330, Mathematics - Statistics Theory, Point forecasts, Statistics Theory (math.ST), Decision theory, 510, order-sensitivity, scoring functions, Order-Sensitivity, Equivariance, 62F07, FOS: Mathematics, stat.TH, translation invariance, decision theory, M-estimation, math.ST, 91B06, Translation invariance, homogeneity, Scoring functions, elicitability, 62C99, 62F07, 62G99, 91B06, Elicitability, M-Estimation, Homogeneity, equivariance, Consistency, 62G99, point forecasts

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
17
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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