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Recursive construction of confidence regions

Authors: Bielecki, Tomasz; Chen, Tao; Cialenco, Igor;

Recursive construction of confidence regions

Abstract

Assuming that one-step transition kernel of a discrete time, time-homogenous Markov chain model is parameterized by a parameter $θ\in \boldsymbol Θ$, we derive a recursive (in time) construction of confidence regions for the unknown parameter of interest, say $θ^*\in \boldsymbol Θ$. It is supposed that the observed data used in construction of the confidence regions is generated by a Markov chain whose transition kernel corresponds to $θ^*$ . The key step in our construction is derivation of a recursive scheme for an appropriate point estimator of $θ^*$. To achieve this, we start by what we call the base recursive point estimator, using which we design a quasi-asymptotically linear recursive point estimator (a concept introduced in this paper). For the latter estimator we prove its weak consistency and asymptotic normality. The recursive construction of confidence regions is needed not only for the purpose of speeding up the computation of the successive confidence regions, but, primarily, for the ability to apply the dynamic programming principle in the context of robust adaptive stochastic control methodology.

Keywords

Mathematics - Statistics Theory, Statistics Theory (math.ST), statistical inference for Markov chains, Applications of Markov chains and discrete-time Markov processes on general state spaces (social mobility, learning theory, industrial processes, etc.), 62M05, 60J05, Discrete-time Markov processes on general state spaces, stochastic approximation, FOS: Mathematics, ergodic processes, 62F25, 60J20, quasi-asymptotically linear estimator, Asymptotic properties of parametric estimators, Parametric tolerance and confidence regions, recursive point estimators, Markov processes: estimation; hidden Markov models, Probability (math.PR), Point estimation, Recursive confidence regions, 62M05, 62F10, 62F12, 62F25, 60J05, 60J20, recursive confidence regions, 62F12, 62F10, Mathematics - Probability

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
9
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold