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ROCKET: Robust confidence intervals via Kendall’s tau for transelliptical graphical models

ROCKET: robust confidence intervals via Kendall's tau for transelliptical graphical models
Authors: Barber, Rina Foygel; Kolar, Mladen;

ROCKET: Robust confidence intervals via Kendall’s tau for transelliptical graphical models

Abstract

Undirected graphical models are used extensively in the biological and social sciences to encode a pattern of conditional independences between variables, where the absence of an edge between two nodes $a$ and $b$ indicates that the corresponding two variables $X_a$ and $X_b$ are believed to be conditionally independent, after controlling for all other measured variables. In the Gaussian case, conditional independence corresponds to a zero entry in the precision matrix $Ω$ (the inverse of the covariance matrix $Σ$). Real data often exhibits heavy tail dependence between variables, which cannot be captured by the commonly-used Gaussian or nonparanormal (Gaussian copula) graphical models. In this paper, we study the transelliptical model, an elliptical copula model that generalizes Gaussian and nonparanormal models to a broader family of distributions. We propose the ROCKET method, which constructs an estimator of $Ω_{ab}$ that we prove to be asymptotically normal under mild assumptions. Empirically, ROCKET outperforms the nonparanormal and Gaussian models in terms of achieving accurate inference on simulated data. We also compare the three methods on real data (daily stock returns), and find that the ROCKET estimator is the only method whose behavior across subsamples agrees with the distribution predicted by the theory.

Keywords

FOS: Computer and information sciences, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Nonparametric robustness, transelliptical graphical models, Graphical model selection, Mathematics - Statistics Theory, Statistics Theory (math.ST), post-model selection inference, Machine Learning (cs.LG), rank-based estimation, Asymptotic properties of nonparametric inference, FOS: Mathematics, covariance selection, 62F12, Nonparametric hypothesis testing, 62G20, Asymptotic properties of parametric estimators, graphical model selection, uniformly valid inference, 62G10

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
15
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
hybrid