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Combining predictive distributions

Authors: Tilmann Gneiting; Roopesh Ranjan;

Combining predictive distributions

Abstract

Predictive distributions need to be aggregated when probabilistic forecasts are merged, or when expert opinions expressed in terms of probability distributions are fused. We take a prediction space approach that applies to discrete, mixed discrete-continuous and continuous predictive distributions alike, and study combination formulas for cumulative distribution functions from the perspectives of coherence, probabilistic and conditional calibration, and dispersion. Both linear and non-linear aggregation methods are investigated, including generalized, spread-adjusted and beta-transformed linear pools. The effects and techniques are demonstrated theoretically, in simulation examples, and in case studies on density forecasts for S&P 500 returns and daily maximum temperature at Seattle-Tacoma Airport.

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Keywords

62, Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics, 62C99, Beta transform, probabilistic calibration, density forecast, probability integral transform, linear pool, flexibly dispersive, Mathematics - Statistics Theory, Statistics Theory (math.ST), conditional calibration, Decision theory, 91B06, Inference from stochastic processes and prediction, Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH), FOS: Mathematics, beta transform, forecast aggregation, Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics, Financial applications of other theories

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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
130
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
gold