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Modeling Periodic HFMD with the Effect of Vaccination in Mainland China

Modeling periodic HFMD with the effect of vaccination in mainland China
Authors: Lei Shi 0025; Hongyong Zhao; Daiyong Wu;

Modeling Periodic HFMD with the Effect of Vaccination in Mainland China

Abstract

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), associated with more than 20 disease-causing enteroviruses, is one of the major public health problems in mainland China, and the unique vaccine available is for enterovirus 71 (EV71). In this paper, we propose a new epidemic model to investigate the effect of EV71 vaccination on the spread of HFMD with multiple pathogenic viruses in mainland China. In addition, suitable periodic transmission functions are designed, with a two-year period and taking into consideration the effects of opening and closing of schools. After defining the basic reproduction number R0, we prove that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0<1, and there exists at least one positive periodic solution and the disease is uniformly persistent if R0>1. We use the model to simulate the HFMD reported data in mainland China from January 2008 to June 2019. The numerical experiments show that increasing the vaccinated rate can effectively control the spread of HFMD in mainland China, yet the disease does not become extinct. Moreover, if we can control the baseline contact rate of infectious individuals and the recovery rate of symptomatic infectious individuals under certain conditions, which can be achieved by improving protective measures and medical conditions, then the disease will be eliminated.

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Keywords

Medical epidemiology, Electronic computers. Computer science, QA75.5-76.95

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
6
Top 10%
Average
Average
gold