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Journal of Probability and Statistics
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Coping with Nonstationarity in Categorical Time Series

Coping with nonstationarity in categorical time series
Authors: Monnie McGee; Ian Harris;

Coping with Nonstationarity in Categorical Time Series

Abstract

Categorical time series are time-sequenced data in which the values at each time point are categories rather than measurements. A categorical time series is considered stationary if the marginal distribution of the data is constant over the time period for which it was gathered and the correlation between successive values is a function only of their distance from each other and not of their position in the series. However, there are many examples of categorical series which do not fit this rather strong definition of stationarity. Such data show various nonstationary behavior, such as a change in the probability of the occurrence of one or more categories. In this paper, we introduce an algorithm which corrects for nonstationarity in categorical time series. The algorithm produces series which are not stationary in the traditional sense often used for stationary categorical time series. The form of stationarity is weaker but still useful for parameter estimation. Simulation results show that this simple algorithm applied to a DAR(1) model can dramatically improve the parameter estimates.

Keywords

Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH), Stationary stochastic processes, Computational problems in statistics, Probabilities. Mathematical statistics, QA273-280

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Average
Average
Average
gold