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doi: 10.1111/sjos.12237
handle: 11380/1111133
AbstractIn this paper, we reconsider the mixture vector autoregressive model, which was proposed in the literature for modelling non‐linear time series. We complete and extend the stationarity conditions, derive a matrix formula in closed form for the autocovariance function of the process and prove a result on stable vector autoregressive moving‐average representations of mixture vector autoregressive models. For these results, we apply techniques related to a Markovian representation of vector autoregressive moving‐average processes. Furthermore, we analyse maximum likelihood estimation of model parameters by using the expectation–maximization algorithm and propose a new iterative algorithm for getting the maximum likelihood estimates. Finally, we study the model selection problem and testing procedures. Several examples, simulation experiments and an empirical application based on monthly financial returns illustrate the proposed procedures.
vector autoregressive moving-average representation, model selection, Point estimation, autocovariance function, mixture vector autoregressive model, Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH), maximum likelihood estimates, stationarity, autocovariance function, EM algorithm, maximum likelihood estimates, mixture vector autoregressive model, model selection, stationarity, vector autoregressive moving-average representation, EM algorithm, Applications of statistics to economics
vector autoregressive moving-average representation, model selection, Point estimation, autocovariance function, mixture vector autoregressive model, Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH), maximum likelihood estimates, stationarity, autocovariance function, EM algorithm, maximum likelihood estimates, mixture vector autoregressive model, model selection, stationarity, vector autoregressive moving-average representation, EM algorithm, Applications of statistics to economics
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