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Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied Statistics)
Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
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zbMATH Open
Article . 2016
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Spatiotemporal Model Fusion: Multiscale Modelling of Civil Unrest

Spatiotemporal model fusion: multiscale modelling of civil unrest
Authors: Hoegh, Andrew; Ferreira, Marco A. R.; Leman, Scotland;

Spatiotemporal Model Fusion: Multiscale Modelling of Civil Unrest

Abstract

SummaryCivil unrest is a complicated, multifaceted social phenomenon that is difficult to forecast. Relevant data for predicting future protests consist of a massive set of heterogeneous sources of data, primarily from social media. Using a modular approach to extract pertinent information from disparate sources of data, we develop a spatiotemporal multiscale framework to fuse predictions from algorithms mining social media. This novel multiscale spatiotemporal model is developed to satisfy four essential requirements: be scalable to handle massive spatiotemporal data sets, incorporate hierarchical predictions, accommodate predictions of differing quality and uncertainty, and be flexible, allowing revisions to existing algorithms and the addition of new algorithms. The paper details the challenges that are posed by these four requirements and outlines the benefits of our novel multiscale spatiotemporal model relative to existing methods. In particular, our multiscale approach coupled with an efficient sequential Monte Carlo framework enables scalable rapid computation of richly specified Bayesian hierarchical models for spatiotemporal data.

Related Organizations
Keywords

sequential Monte Carlo methods, multiscale modelling, Applications of statistics, areal data, spatiotemporal modelling

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    popularity
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    influence
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
8
Top 10%
Average
Average
hybrid