
SummaryWe consider causal mediation analysis when exposures and mediators vary over time. We give non-parametric identification results, discuss parametric implementation and also provide a weighting approach to direct and indirect effects based on combining the results of two marginal structural models. We also discuss how our results give rise to a causal interpretation of the effect estimates produced from longitudinal structural equation models. When there are time varying confounders affected by prior exposure and a mediator, natural direct and indirect effects are not identified. However, we define a randomized interventional analogue of natural direct and indirect effects that are identified in this setting. The formula that identifies these effects we refer to as the ‘mediational g-formula’. When there is no mediation, the mediational g-formula reduces to Robins's regular g-formula for longitudinal data. When there are no time varying confounders affected by prior exposure and mediator values, then the mediational g-formula reduces to a longitudinal version of Pearl's mediation formula. However, the mediational g-formula itself can accommodate both mediation and time varying confounders and constitutes a general approach to mediation analysis with time varying exposures and mediators.
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