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Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society)
Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
License: OUP Standard Publication Reuse
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zbMATH Open
Article . 2019
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A Bayesian Approach to Developing a Stochastic Mortality Model for China

A Bayesian approach to developing a stochastic mortality model for China
Authors: Li, JS-H; Zhou, KQ; Zhu, X; Chan, W-S; Chan, FW-H;

A Bayesian Approach to Developing a Stochastic Mortality Model for China

Abstract

SummaryStochastic mortality models have a wide range of applications. They are particularly important for analysing Chinese mortality, which is subject to rapid and uncertain changes. However, owing to data-related problems, stochastic modelling of Chinese mortality has not been given adequate attention. We attempt to use a Bayesian approach to model the evolution of Chinese mortality over time, taking into account all of the problems associated with the data set. We build on the Gaussian state space formulation of the Lee–Carter model, introducing new features to handle the missing data points, to acknowledge the fact that the data are obtained from different sources and to mitigate the erratic behaviour of the parameter estimates that arises from the data limitations. The approach proposed yields stochastic mortality forecasts that are in line with both the trend and the variation of the historical observations. We further use simulated pseudodata sets with resembling limitations to validate the approach. The validation result confirms our approach’s success in dealing with the limitations of the Chinese mortality data.

Country
Australia
Related Organizations
Keywords

330, multiple imputation, Lee-Carter model, Applications of statistics, sequential Kalman filter, sampling uncertainty, 510

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
16
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
hybrid