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Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society)
Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
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Article . 2019
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https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2018
License: arXiv Non-Exclusive Distribution
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Pollution State Modelling for Mexico City

Pollution state modelling for Mexico city
Authors: White, Philip A.; Gelfand, Alan E.; Rodrigues, Eliane R.; Tzintzun, Guadalupe;

Pollution State Modelling for Mexico City

Abstract

SummaryGround level ozone and particulate matter pollutants are associated with a variety of health issues and increased mortality. For this reason, Mexican environmental agencies regulate pollutant levels. In addition, Mexico City defines pollution emergencies by using thresholds that rely on regional maxima for ozone and for particulate matter with diameter less than 10 μm, PM10. To predict local pollution emergencies and to assess compliance to Mexican ambient air quality standards, we analyse hourly ozone and PM10-measurements from 24 stations across Mexico City from 2017 by using a bivariate spatiotemporal model. With this model, we predict future pollutant levels by using current weather conditions and recent pollutant concentrations. Employing hourly pollutant projections, we predict regional maxima needed to estimate the probability of future pollution emergencies. We discuss how predicted compliance to legislated pollution limits varies across regions within Mexico City in 2017. We find that the predicted probability of pollution emergencies is limited to a few time periods. In contrast, we show that predicted exceedance of Mexican ambient air quality standards is a common, nearly daily occurrence.

Keywords

particulate matter, FOS: Computer and information sciences, Bayesian inference, environmental exposure, Applications of statistics, Statistics - Applications, spatiotemporal modelling, ozone, Applications (stat.AP)

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    popularity
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    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
hybrid