Summary The plume of hot gases rising above a wildfire can heat and kill the buds in tree crowns. This can reduce leaf area and rates of photosynthesis, growth, and reproduction, and may ultimately lead to mortality. These effects vary seasonally, but the mechanisms governing this seasonality are not well understood. A trait‐based physical model combining buoyant plume and energy budget theories shows the seasonality of bud necrosis height may originate from temporal variation in climate, fire behaviour, and/or bud functional traits. To assess the relative importance of these drivers, we parameterized the model with time‐series data for air temperature, fireline intensity, and bud traits from Pinus contorta, Picea glauca, and Populus tremuloides. Air temperature, fireline intensity, and bud traits all varied significantly through time, causing significant seasonal variation in predicted necrosis height. Bud traits and fireline intensity explained almost all the variation in necrosis height, with air temperature explaining relatively minor amounts of variation. The seasonality of fire effects on tree crowns appears to originate from seasonal variation in functional traits and fire behaviour. Our approach and results provide needed insight into the physical mechanisms linking environmental variation to plant performance via functional traits.