
This paper provides a coherent method for scenario aggregation addressing model uncertainty. It is based on divergence minimization from a reference probability measure subject to scenario constraints. An example from regulatory practice motivates the definition of five fundamental criteria that serve as a basis for our method. Standard risk measures, such as value‐at‐risk and expected shortfall, are shown to be robust with respect to minimum divergence scenario aggregation. Various examples illustrate the tractability of our method.
statistical divergence, Actuarial mathematics, scenario aggregation, value-at-risk, expected shortfall, model uncertainty, Swiss Solvency Test, Statistical methods; risk measures
statistical divergence, Actuarial mathematics, scenario aggregation, value-at-risk, expected shortfall, model uncertainty, Swiss Solvency Test, Statistical methods; risk measures
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