
doi: 10.1111/jtsa.12720
Granger causality is a classical and important technique for measuring predictability from one group of time series to another by incorporating information of the variables described by a full vector autoregressive (VAR) process. However, in some applications economic forecasts need to be made based on information provided merely by a portion of variates (e.g., removal of a listed stock due to halting, suspension or delisting). This requires a new formulation of forecast based on an embedded subprocess of VAR, whose theoretical properties are often difficult to obtain. To avoid the issue of identifying the VAR subprocess, we propose a computation‐based approach so that sophisticated predictions can be made by utilizing a reduced variable information set estimated from sampled data. Such estimated information set allows us to develop a suitable statistical hypothesis testing procedure for characterizing all designated Granger causal relationships, as well as a useful graphical tool for presenting the causal structure over the prediction horizon. Finally, simulated data and a real example from the stock markets are used to illustrate the proposed method.
modified Wald test, Asymptotic distribution theory in statistics, Gaussian white noise, multivariate delta method, Causal inference from observational studies, Parametric hypothesis testing, reduced information set, Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH), vector autoregression, subprocess
modified Wald test, Asymptotic distribution theory in statistics, Gaussian white noise, multivariate delta method, Causal inference from observational studies, Parametric hypothesis testing, reduced information set, Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH), vector autoregression, subprocess
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