Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ arXiv.org e-Print Ar...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
Journal of Time Series Analysis
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
Data sources: Crossref
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
zbMATH Open
Article . 2022
Data sources: zbMATH Open
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2019
License: arXiv Non-Exclusive Distribution
Data sources: Datacite
versions View all 4 versions
addClaim

Variable length Markov chain with exogenous covariates

Authors: Adriano Zanin Zambom; Seonjin Kim; Nancy Lopes Garcia;

Variable length Markov chain with exogenous covariates

Abstract

Markov chains with variable length are useful stochastic models for data compression that avoid the curse of dimensionality faced by full Markov chains. In this article we introduce a variable length Markov chain whose transition probabilities depend not only on the state history but also on exogenous covariates through a generalized linear model. The goal of the proposed procedure is to estimate not only the context of the process, that is, the history of the process that is relevant for predicting the next state, but also the coefficients corresponding to the significant exogenous variables. The proposed method is consistent in the sense that the probability that the estimated context and the coefficients are equal to the true data generating mechanism tends to 1 as the sample size increases. Simulations suggest that, when covariates do contribute to the transition probabilities, the proposed procedure can recover both the tree structure and the regression parameters. It outperforms variable length Markov chains when covariates are present while yielding comparable results when covariates are absent. For models with fixed length, the accuracy of the proposed algorithm in recovering the true data generating mechanism is close to the methods available in the literature. The proposed methodology is used to predict the gains and losses of the Hang Seng index based on its own history and three large stock market indices.

Keywords

categorical time series, Methodology (stat.ME), FOS: Computer and information sciences, likelihood ratio, Linear regression; mixed models, consistency, context tree, Markov chain, context algorithm, Markov chains (discrete-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces), Statistics - Methodology

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    2
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
Green