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Estimating the Effective Size of European Wolf Populations

Authors: Joachim Mergeay; Sander Smet; Sebastian Collet; Sabina Nowak; Ilka Reinhardt; Gesa Kluth; Maciej Szewczyk; +4 Authors

Estimating the Effective Size of European Wolf Populations

Abstract

ABSTRACTMolecular methods are routinely used to estimate the effective size of populations (Ne). However, underlying model assumptions are frequently violated to an unknown extent. Although simulations can detect sources of bias and help to adjust sampling strategies and analyses methods, additional information from empirical data can also be used to calibrate methods and improve molecular Ne estimation methods. Here, we take advantage of long‐term genetic and ecological monitoring data of the grey wolf (Canis lupus) in Germany, and detailed population genetic studies in Poland, Spain and Portugal to improve Ne estimation strategies in this species, and species with similar life history traits. We first calculated Ne from average lifetime reproductive success and detailed census data from the German population, which served as a baseline to compare to molecular estimates based on linkage disequilibrium and sibship frequency. This yielded a robust Ne/Nc estimation that we used to calibrate molecular estimates of German, Polish and Iberian wolf populations. The linkage disequilibrium method was strongly influenced by spatial genetic structure, much more than the sibship frequency method. When Ne was estimated in local neighbourhoods, both methods yielded comparable results. Estimates of the metapopulation effective size seemed to correspond generally well with the sum of the estimates of local neighbourhoods. Overall, we found that the number of packs is a good proxy of the effective population size. Using this as a rule of thumb, we evaluated for all European wolf populations the Ne 500 indicator and concluded that half of the European wolf populations do not yet fulfil this criterion.

Countries
Poland, Belgium
Keywords

WOLVES CANIS-LUPUS, DYNAMICS, conservation biology, Evolution, population genetics - empirical, grey wolf, 3105 Genetics, BIALOWIEZA PRIMEVAL FOREST, 0603 Evolutionary Biology, PROGRAM, QH359-425, population genetics ‐ empirical, wildlife management, 3104 Evolutionary biology, Evolutionary Biology, 0604 Genetics, Science & Technology, 0304 Medicinal and Biomolecular Chemistry, POLAND, SINGLE-SAMPLE, 3103 Ecology, Canis lupus, conservation genetics, PAIRWISE RELATEDNESS, Original Article, Life Sciences & Biomedicine

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
9
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold