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Conservation Science and Practice
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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Conservation Science and Practice
Article . 2024
Data sources: DOAJ
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Modeling the response of an endangered rabbit population to RHDV2 and vaccination

Authors: Robin E. Russell; Robert J. Dusek; Stephanie Prevost; Deana L. Clifford; Megan E. Moriarty; Fumika Takahashi;

Modeling the response of an endangered rabbit population to RHDV2 and vaccination

Abstract

Abstract Rabbit hemorrhagic disease virus 2 (RHDV2), recently detected in the western United States, has the potential to cause mass mortality events in wild rabbit and hare populations. Currently, few management strategies exist other than vaccination. We developed a spatially explicit model of RHDV2 for a population of riparian brush rabbits ( Sylvilagus bachmani riparius ), a subspecies of brush rabbit classified as endangered in the United States, on a subsection of the San Joaquin River National Wildlife Refuge. The goal of our model was to provide guidance regarding vaccination strategies for an endangered rabbit species. Our model predicts that increased interactions between rabbits (a proxy for landscape connectivity) and disease transmission rates among susceptible hosts (individual brush rabbits and conspecifics) have the greatest influence on the outcome of a potential vaccination campaign. Our model projects that across a range of parameter estimates (given an RHDV2 incursion), the median estimated population size with a 0%–10% vaccination rate after 1 year is 538 rabbits (95% Confidence Interval [C.I.] 69–1235), approximately 36% of the expected size of the study population of 1470 rabbits without an RHDV2 introduction. With a 10%–20%, 20%–30%, or 30%–40% vaccination rate, the median estimated population size increased to 628 rabbits (95% C.I. 130–1298), 723 rabbits (95% C.I. 198–1317), and 774 rabbits (95% C.I. 228–1410), respectively. These estimates represent 43%, 49%, and 53% of the expected population size without an RHDV2 introduction. Overall, a 1% increase in vaccination rate was associated with a six rabbit (95% C.I. 5–7) increase in total remaining population size. This result is dependent on assumptions regarding environmental transmission, home range size (and contact rates of rabbits). Given the relatively short lifespan of rabbits and the potential need for boosters, vaccination programs are most likely to be successful for small target populations where relatively high vaccination rates can be maintained.

Keywords

Ecology, rabbit hemorrhagic disease, host‐pathogen models, General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution, emerging disease, wildlife management, endangered species, QH1-199.5, Sylvilagus bachmani riparius, QH540-549.5

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
6
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
gold