
Abstract Ranger‐led law enforcement patrols are the primary, site‐level response to – and the most common source of data on – illegal activity threatening wildlife in protected areas. Yet evidence that patrols effectively deter rule‐breaking is limited, and common management metrics for evaluating deterrence, which use ranger‐collected data, are particularly vulnerable to bias. “Differenced plots” (of the association between change in patrol effort and subsequent change in illegal activity) were recently proposed as a simple, new metric for deterrence, which, in tests with simulated patrol data, were more robust than the common alternatives. Here, we trial application of differenced plots to real patrol data collected in four protected areas, and explore methods for applying the metric in practice, using two indicators of rule‐breaking: snares, and people. We find evidence which is consistent with deterrence in some but not all sites, over shorter timescales than observed hitherto: increases in patrol effort were associated with subsequent reductions in snaring in one site, and in the presence of people in two sites. However, whether pressure on wildlife had been reduced or merely displaced was unclear from differenced plots, nor could the metric confirm absence of deterrence, raising questions for future applications. Our findings suggest differenced plots can be a useful metric, particularly for exploring variation in deterrence within sites, but should be applied and interpreted with care, and further work is urgently needed to determine whether and how patrols deter illegal activity, and to evaluate the effect reliably.
Deterrence (psychology), Metric (unit), Wildlife Ecology and Conservation Biology, Economics, FOS: Political science, rangers, FOS: Law, Law and economics, QH1-199.5, Illegal Trade and Conservation of Parrots, Wildlife, FOS: Economics and business, Computer security, law enforcement, poaching, Business, Law enforcement, Camera Trapping, Political science, Biology, QH540-549.5, Nature and Landscape Conservation, Marketing, Ecology, Geography, General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution, Deterrence theory, snaring, Computer science, FOS: Biological sciences, illegal activity, Environmental Science, Physical Sciences, Ecological Effects of Roads on Wildlife and Habitat Connectivity, protected areas, Law, Enforcement
Deterrence (psychology), Metric (unit), Wildlife Ecology and Conservation Biology, Economics, FOS: Political science, rangers, FOS: Law, Law and economics, QH1-199.5, Illegal Trade and Conservation of Parrots, Wildlife, FOS: Economics and business, Computer security, law enforcement, poaching, Business, Law enforcement, Camera Trapping, Political science, Biology, QH540-549.5, Nature and Landscape Conservation, Marketing, Ecology, Geography, General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution, Deterrence theory, snaring, Computer science, FOS: Biological sciences, illegal activity, Environmental Science, Physical Sciences, Ecological Effects of Roads on Wildlife and Habitat Connectivity, protected areas, Law, Enforcement
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| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% |
