AbstractPlants have evolved mechanisms to track seasonal variation in environmental resources, enabling them to time key life‐history events to appropriate seasons. While the proximate cues for flowering initiation are well documented in the temperate region, it is still unclear what the flowering cues are in the tropics, especially in the subtropics. Our study compared first flowering dates (FFDs) predicted by eight hypothesized proximate cues concerning photoperiod, mean and directional changes in solar irradiance and warm/cool temperature, and rainfall with flowering dates observed over 19 years of weekly monitoring for 16 species in a subtropical rain forest. We observed considerable interannual variation in the median FFDs for the study species, ranging from 21 to 101 days. The early‐spring flowering species tended to have greater interannual variation in FFDs than the summer flowering species. For 13 study species, temperature cues best explained interannual variation in FFDs. Cool temperatures in the previous fall/winter and warm temperatures in the current spring (or previous summer) might trigger the onset of flowering in these 13 species. Cues associated with photoperiod and irradiance also predicted interannual variation in FFDs with small root mean square error (<1.5 census intervals) for 12 species but generally had higher prediction errors than temperature‐related cues. Cues associated with seasonal variation in rainfall failed to predict flowering times in any species. Our results suggest that future changes in temperature may alter flowering times for most species in subtropical forests, leading to changes in ecosystem processes and biosphere feedback to the climate system.Abstract in Chinese is available with online material.