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Heterogeneous ensemble for power load demand forecasting

Authors: Aruna Charukesi Palaninathan; Xueheng Qiu; Ponnuthurai Nagaratnam Suganthan;

Heterogeneous ensemble for power load demand forecasting

Abstract

Electricity load demand is the fundamental building block for all utilities planning. The load demand data has nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics, which make it difficult to be predicted accurately by just computational intelligence or ensemble methods. Ensemble methods like Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) is a powerful tool to forecast power load demand time series. Heterogeneous ensemble, a combination of two base models, will be distinct or more powerful in forecasting power load demand. In this paper, Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) method is hybridized with three computational intelligence-based predictors: support vector regression (SVR), artificial neural network (ANN) and random forest (RF). The basis of this paper was to conduct a comparative study on the accuracy of the forecasting result from using heterogeneous ensemble method to individual computational intelligence or ensemble method for four different horizons. The performances of the heterogeneous method are compared and discussed. It shows that heterogeneous method has outperformed the individual computational intelligence and ensemble methods. Possible future works are also recommended for power load demand forecasting.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
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