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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao https://doi.org/10.1...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
https://doi.org/10.1109/itsc.2...
Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
License: IEEE Copyright
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Measurement and Prediction of Regional Traffic Volume in Holidays

Authors: Zhenzhu Wang; Yishuai Chen; Jian Su; Yuchun Guo; Yongxiang Zhao; Weikang Tang; Chao Zeng; +1 Authors

Measurement and Prediction of Regional Traffic Volume in Holidays

Abstract

Accurate regional traffic volume projection is important for department of transportation to plan investments, and also helps forecast oil or electric energy demand and CO 2 emissions. Based on a 4.5 years’ daily traffic volume measurement data of the highway network of Guizhou province of China, this paper conducts a comprehensive measurement analysis of the network’s traffic volume growth pattern and proposes a new time series model, which improves the projection accuracy of non-holiday and holiday traffic considerably. We first find that the holiday traffic volume is considerably higher than that on the neighboring non-holidays (e.g., 1.88 times), which could bring tremendous pressure on the road network. We then find that the traffic of network increases exponentially, in particular, the increase rates in holidays are higher than those in non-holidays. Thus, we propose an Exponential-Growth (EG) holiday component model, which models the holiday component with exponential growth. Experimental results show that our model considerably improves the holiday traffic’s prediction accuracy compared with the existing models. For instance, for the first day of National Day holiday, which is usually the heaviest day in a whole year (from Jan. 1 to Dec. 31), the model decreases the prediction relative error from 18.7% to 7%.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
8
Top 10%
Average
Average
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