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Crowdsourced electricity demand forecast

Authors: Kenneth Humphreys; Jia Yuan Yu;

Crowdsourced electricity demand forecast

Abstract

We propose a new approach to forecasting the demand for a commodity in which the supplier asks each consumer to forecast its own demand in return for a monetary reward that is proportional to the accuracy of the forecast. Such an approach is applicable when demand for a perishable commodity is uncertain and forecast error leads to waste for suppliers. In this paper, we apply this approach to forecast residential electricity demand over 24 hours, i.e., short-term load forecasting (STLF). Accurate STLF is vital to meeting the large daily fluctuations in the demand for electricity in a reliable and economical way. Improving STLF accuracy can reduce the variable costs incurred by power system operators and energy retailers through more precise generation scheduling and energy purchasing. We propose a new method to model both the true demand profiles for individual residential electricity consumers, and their own forecasts of those demand profiles. This work is a first step in understanding interactions between the consumer-forecaster and the supplier-rewarder.

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    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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Powered by OpenAIRE graph
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
6
Top 10%
Average
Average
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