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Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Extreme Gradient Boosting

Authors: Ren Cai; Sen Xie; Bozhong Wang; Ruijiang Yang; Daosen Xu; Yang He;

Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Extreme Gradient Boosting

Abstract

As the integration of wind power into electrical energy network increasing, accurate forecast of wind speed becomes highly important in the case of large-scale wind power connected into the grid. In order to improve the accuracy of wind speed forecast and the generalization ability of the model, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) as an improvement from gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) is trained and deployed in the cheaper central processing unit (CPU) devices instead of graphics processing unit (GPU) devices, thus, a wind speed forecast model based on Extreme Gradient Boosting is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the historical data is taken as a part of the input vectors for the model. Moreover, considering the monthly change of wind speed characteristics, the dataset of wind power is divided into four parts by month so that the models are constructed in different complexity by month. Finally, compared with back propagation neural networks (BPNN) and linear regression (LR) models, the experimental results show that the improved XGBoost model can promote the forecast accuracy effectively.

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Keywords

Short-term wind speed forecasting, historical characteristics, Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering, time series, power grid, XGBoost, TK1-9971

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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
45
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 10%
gold