A mathematical thermal model that can predict the operating temperatures for cables when there is load diversity in single, horizontal, open-top cable trays is presented. The model accommodates two different loading scenarios-one in which the heat load is distributed evenly across the cable tray cross-section and a second one which concentrates the heavily loaded cables along the center-line and surrounds them with more lightly loaded cables. The second model is designed to yield a maximum cable temperature and to account for the load diversity that exists in a realistically operated tray. Temperature predictions provided by the model are compared with previous laboratory cable tray experiments and with data collected during a four year study in which cable temperatures were measured in an operating nuclear plant. Reasons for differences between the field data and the computer results are discussed. The model is used to evaluate the conservatism in the ICEA P54-440 as a result of load diversity. >