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Physical Review Letters
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Physical Review Letters
Article . 2015 . Peer-reviewed
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https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2015
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Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Density Functional Theory and Information Content of New Measurements

Authors: Witold Nazarewicz; Witold Nazarewicz; Witold Nazarewicz; Stefan M. Wild; Jordan McDonnell; Jordan McDonnell; Nicolas Schunck; +2 Authors

Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Density Functional Theory and Information Content of New Measurements

Abstract

Statistical tools of uncertainty quantification can be used to assess the information content of measured observables with respect to present-day theoretical models; to estimate model errors and thereby improve predictive capability; to extrapolate beyond the regions reached by experiment; and to provide meaningful input to applications and planned measurements. To showcase new opportunities offered by such tools, we make a rigorous analysis of theoretical statistical uncertainties in nuclear density functional theory using Bayesian inference methods. By considering the recent mass measurements from the Canadian Penning Trap at Argonne National Laboratory, we demonstrate how the Bayesian analysis and a direct least-squares optimization, combined with high-performance computing, can be used to assess the information content of the new data with respect to a model based on the Skyrme energy density functional approach. Employing the posterior probability distribution computed with a Gaussian process emulator, we apply the Bayesian framework to propagate theoretical statistical uncertainties in predictions of nuclear masses, two-neutron dripline, and fission barriers. Overall, we find that the new mass measurements do not impose a constraint that is strong enough to lead to significant changes in the model parameters. The example discussed in this study sets the stage for quantifying and maximizing the impact of new measurements with respect to current modeling and guiding future experimental efforts, thus enhancing the experiment-theory cycle in the scientific method.

5 pages, 4 figures, 1 table; Supplemental material with 2 tables; Submitted to Physical Review Letters

Keywords

Nuclear Theory (nucl-th), Nuclear Theory, FOS: Physical sciences

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    influence
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
103
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 1%
Green
hybrid