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A Darwinian Uncertainty Principle

Authors: Gascuel, Olivier; Steel, Mike;

A Darwinian Uncertainty Principle

Abstract

Abstract Reconstructing ancestral characters and traits along a phylogenetic tree is central to evolutionary biology. It is the key to understanding morphology changes among species, inferring ancestral biochemical properties of life, and recovering migration routes in phylogeography. The goal is twofold: to reconstruct the character state at the tree root (e.g. the region of origin of some species), and to understand the process of state changes along the tree (e.g. species flow between countries). Although each goal can be achieved with high accuracy individually, we use mathematics and simulations to demonstrate that it is generally impossible to accurately estimate both the root state and the rates of state changes along the tree branches from the observed data at the tips of the tree. This inherent ‘Darwinian uncertainty principle’ concerning the simultaneous estimation of ‘pattern’ and ‘process’ governs ancestral reconstructions in biology. Increasing the number of tips improves the joint estimation accuracy for certain tree shapes that arise in evolutionary models, however, for other trees shapes it does not.

Country
France
Keywords

[SDV] Life Sciences [q-bio], [SDV.BID.SPT] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity/Systematics, Phylogenetics and taxonomy, [SDV.BID.EVO] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity/Populations and Evolution [q-bio.PE], Computer Simulation, [MATH] Mathematics [math], Models, Theoretical, Classification, Phylogeny, Regular Articles

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
19
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
hybrid