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Ignoring stratigraphic age uncertainty leads to erroneous estimates of species divergence times under the fossilized birth–death process

Authors: Barido-Sottani, Joëlle; Aguirre-Fernández, Gabriel; Hopkins, Melanie; Stadler, Tanja; Warnock, Rachel;

Ignoring stratigraphic age uncertainty leads to erroneous estimates of species divergence times under the fossilized birth–death process

Abstract

Fossil information is essential for estimating species divergence times, and can be integrated into Bayesian phylogenetic inference using the fossilized birth–death (FBD) process. An important aspect of palaeontological data is the uncertainty surrounding specimen ages, which can be handled in different ways during inference. The most common approach is to fix fossil ages to a point estimate within the known age interval. Alternatively, age uncertainty can be incorporated by using priors, and fossil ages are then directly sampled as part of the inference. This study presents a comparison of alternative approaches for handling fossil age uncertainty in analysis using the FBD process. Based on simulations, we find that fixing fossil ages to the midpoint or a random point drawn from within the stratigraphic age range leads to biases in divergence time estimates, while sampling fossil ages leads to estimates that are similar to inferences that employ the correct ages of fossils. Second, we show a comparison using an empirical dataset of extant and fossil cetaceans, which confirms that different methods of handling fossil age uncertainty lead to large differences in estimated node ages. Stratigraphic age uncertainty should thus not be ignored in divergence time estimation and instead should be incorporated explicitly.

Country
Switzerland
Keywords

10125 Department of Paleontology, Time Factors, Genetic Speciation, Bayesian phylogenetics, Genetics and Molecular Biology, 1100 General Agricultural and Biological Sciences, Extinction, Biological, 2300 General Environmental Science, fossilized birth–death; stratigraphic age uncertainty; fossil data; Bayesian phylogenetics; divergence times estimation, 1300 General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, 2400 General Immunology and Microbiology, Animals, Computer Simulation, stratigraphic age uncertainty, Phylogeny, fossilized birth–death, General Environmental Science, General Immunology and Microbiology, Fossils, Paleontology, General Medicine, fossil data, Biological Evolution, divergence times estimation, 560 Fossils & prehistoric life, Palaeobiology, General Biochemistry, 560 Fossils & prehistoric life, Cetacea, General Agricultural and Biological Sciences

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
71
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 1%
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