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The flock–to–flock force of infection for scrapie in Britain

Authors: Gravenor, M; Cox, DR; Hoinville, L; Hoek, A; Mclean, A;

The flock–to–flock force of infection for scrapie in Britain

Abstract

A postal survey of British sheep farmers provided information on the proportion of farms that experienced their first case of scrapie in each year between 1962 and 1998. We found no evidence of a large increase in the proportion of scrapie-affected farms prior to, during or following the epidemic of BSE in British cattle. After correcting for between-farm heterogeneity in the probability of acquiring scrapie, we estimated the yearly between-flock force of infection since 1962. The current force of infection is estimated at approximately 0.0045 per farm per year and combined with a simple model of scrapie spread provides an estimate of the average duration of a scrapie outbreak on an individual farm. Considering all farms, the average outbreak lasts for five years, but if only those farms that have cases in animals born on the farm are considered, it lasts 15 years. We use these parameter estimates to compare the proportion of farms with scrapie in time periods of different lengths. In the survey, 2.7% of farms had a case in 1998. The 5.3% of farms reporting having a case between 1993 and 1997 is consistent with the hypothesis that the scrapie force of infection remained constant over this period.

Country
United Kingdom
Related Organizations
Keywords

Models, Statistical, Sheep, Sheep Diseases, United Kingdom, Disease Outbreaks, Encephalopathy, Bovine Spongiform, Surveys and Questionnaires, Animals, Cattle, Female, Epidemiologic Methods, Scrapie

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
20
Average
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
bronze