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Calibrated Birth–Death Phylogenetic Time-Tree Priors for Bayesian Inference

Authors: Heled, Joseph; Drummond, Alexei J.;

Calibrated Birth–Death Phylogenetic Time-Tree Priors for Bayesian Inference

Abstract

Here we introduce a general class of multiple calibration birth-death tree priors for use in Bayesian phylogenetic inference. All tree priors in this class separate ancestral node heights into a set of "calibrated nodes" and "uncalibrated nodes" such that the marginal distribution of the calibrated nodes is user-specified whereas the density ratio of the birth-death prior is retained for trees with equal values for the calibrated nodes. We describe two formulations, one in which the calibration information informs the prior on ranked tree topologies, through the (conditional) prior, and the other which factorizes the prior on divergence times and ranked topologies, thus allowing uniform, or any arbitrary prior distribution on ranked topologies. While the first of these formulations has some attractive properties the algorithm we present for computing its prior density is computationally intensive. On the other hand, the second formulation is always computationally efficient. We demonstrate the utility of the new class of multiple-calibration tree priors using both small simulations and a real-world analysis and compare the results to existing schemes. The two new calibrated tree priors described in this paper offer greater flexibility and control of prior specification in calibrated time-tree inference and divergence time dating, and will remove the need for indirect approaches to the assessment of the combined effect of calibration densities and tree process priors in Bayesian phylogenetic inference.

Keywords

Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE), Bayes Theorem, Classification, Typhaceae, Time, FOS: Biological sciences, Calibration, Animals, Computer Simulation, Anura, Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution, Algorithms, Phylogeny, Regular Articles

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
49
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
hybrid