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Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Statistical Methodology)
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2024
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
e-Prints Soton
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: e-Prints Soton
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Bayesian quantile estimation and regression with martingale posteriors

Authors: Fong, Edwin; Yiu, Andrew;

Bayesian quantile estimation and regression with martingale posteriors

Abstract

Abstract Quantile estimation and regression within the Bayesian framework is challenging as the choice of likelihood and prior is not obvious. In this paper, we introduce a novel Bayesian nonparametric method for quantile estimation and regression based on the recently introduced martingale posterior (MP) framework. The core idea of the MP is that posterior sampling is equivalent to predictive imputation, which allows us to break free of the stringent likelihood-prior specification. We demonstrate that a recursive estimate of a smooth quantile function, subject to a martingale condition, is entirely sufficient for full nonparametric Bayesian inference. We term the resulting posterior distribution as the quantile martingale posterior (QMP), which arises from an implicit generative predictive distribution. Associated with the QMP is an expedient, MCMC-free and parallelizable posterior computation scheme, which can be further accelerated with an asymptotic approximation based on a Gaussian process. Furthermore, the well-known issue of monotonicity in quantile estimation is naturally alleviated through increasing rearrangement due to the connections to the Bayesian bootstrap. Finally, the QMP has a particularly tractable form that allows for comprehensive theoretical study, which forms a main focus of the work. We demonstrate the ease of posterior computation in simulations and real data experiments.

Country
United Kingdom
Keywords

Methodology (stat.ME), FOS: Computer and information sciences, Methodology, Statistics Theory, FOS: Mathematics, Statistics Theory (math.ST)

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
hybrid
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