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Autoregressive optimal transport models

Authors: Changbo Zhu; Hans-Georg Müller;

Autoregressive optimal transport models

Abstract

Abstract Series of univariate distributions indexed by equally spaced time points are ubiquitous in applications and their analysis constitutes one of the challenges of the emerging field of distributional data analysis. To quantify such distributional time series, we propose a class of intrinsic autoregressive models that operate in the space of optimal transport maps. The autoregressive transport models that we introduce here are based on regressing optimal transport maps on each other, where predictors can be transport maps from an overall barycenter to a current distribution or transport maps between past consecutive distributions of the distributional time series. Autoregressive transport models and their associated distributional regression models specify the link between predictor and response transport maps by moving along geodesics in Wasserstein space. These models emerge as natural extensions of the classical autoregressive models in Euclidean space. Unique stationary solutions of autoregressive transport models are shown to exist under a geometric moment contraction condition of Wu & Shao [(2004) Limit theorems for iterated random functions. Journal of Applied Probability 41, 425–436)], using properties of iterated random functions. We also discuss an extension to a varying coefficient model for first-order autoregressive transport models. In addition to simulations, the proposed models are illustrated with distributional time series of house prices across U.S. counties and annual summer temperature distributions.

Keywords

distributional regression, iterated random function, FOS: Computer and information sciences, Statistics, Methodology (stat.ME), Wasserstein space, optimal transport, distributional time series, Original Article, distributional data analysis, Statistics - Methodology

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
13
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
hybrid