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Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society)
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
License: OUP Standard Publication Reuse
Data sources: Crossref
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zbMATH Open
Article . 2024
Data sources: zbMATH Open
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Causal inference over stochastic networks

Authors: Duncan A Clark; Mark S Handcock;

Causal inference over stochastic networks

Abstract

Abstract Claiming causal inferences in network settings necessitates careful consideration of the often complex dependency between outcomes for actors. Of particular importance are treatment spillover or outcome interference effects. We consider causal inference when the actors are connected via an underlying network structure. Our key contribution is a model for causality when the underlying network is endogenous; where the ties between actors and the actor covariates are statistically dependent. We develop a joint model for the relational and covariate generating process that avoids restrictive separability and fixed network assumptions, as these rarely hold in realistic social settings. While our framework can be used with general models, we develop the highly expressive class of Exponential-family Random Network models (ERNM) of which Markov random fields and Exponential-family Random Graph models are special cases. We present potential outcome-based inference within a Bayesian framework and propose a modification to the exchange algorithm to allow for sampling from ERNM posteriors. We present results of a simulation study demonstrating the validity of the approach. Finally, we demonstrate the value of the framework in a case study of smoking in the context of adolescent friendship networks.

Country
United States
Keywords

causality, spillover, Statistics & Probability, network models, Statistics, interference, Applications of statistics, Mathematical Sciences, contagion, Econometrics, Gibbs measures, Demography

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    popularity
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green