Abstract For non-native insects that are economically damaging, understanding the drivers of range expansions and contractions is important for forecasting pest pressure. The invasion of the redbanded stink bug, Piezodorus guildinii (Westwood) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), reached Louisiana, United States, in 2000, after which the northern range limits of this species have fluctuated annually. Low winter temperatures have been implicated as a major driver of this pattern, but the importance of cold temperatures—or other abiotic factors—for the persistence of this pest over large geographic scales are incompletely understood. We coupled occurrence data of P. guildinii with climatic data to investigate trends in P. guildinii presence in relation to winter temperatures and develop species distribution models, forecasting habitat suitability based on current and future climatic scenarios. Our results show that (i) some P. guildinii persisted in locations where ambient temperatures reached −12°C, (ii) overwintering temperatures drive P. guildinii range dynamics, and (iii) with intermediate projections of climatic warming, northward expansion by P. guildinii in North America is likely to be minimal. While the northern extent of P. guildinii’s range may now be largely realized in North America, our results suggest that increased frequency of mild winters could reduce interannual fluctuations of P. guildinii and enable it to become a more consistent economic concern for soybean growers throughout the Midsouth region of the United States.