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Journal of Complex Networks
Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2014
License: arXiv Non-Exclusive Distribution
Data sources: Datacite
DBLP
Article . 2015
Data sources: DBLP
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Stationarity, non-stationarity and early warning signals in economic networks

Authors: Tiziano Squartini; Diego Garlaschelli;

Stationarity, non-stationarity and early warning signals in economic networks

Abstract

Economic integration, globalization and financial crises represent examples of processes whose understanding requires the analysis of the underlying network structure. Of particular interest is establishing whether a real economic network is in a state of (quasi)stationary equilibrium, i.e. characterized by smooth structural changes rather than abrupt transitions. While in the former case the behaviour of the system can be reasonably controlled and predicted, in the latter case this is generally impossible. Here, we propose a method to assess whether a real economic network is in a quasi-stationary state by checking the consistency of its structural evolution with appropriate quasi-equilibrium maximum-entropy ensembles of graphs. As illustrative examples, we consider the International Trade Network (ITN) and the Dutch Interbank Network (DIN). We find that the ITN is an almost perfect example of quasi-equilibrium network, while the DIN is clearly out-of-equilibrium. In the latter, the entity of the deviation from quasi-stationarity contains precious information that allows us to identify remarkable early warning signals of the interbank crisis of 2008. These early warning signals involve certain dyadic and triadic topological properties, including dangerous 'debt loops' with different levels of interbank reciprocity.

12 pages, 9 figures. Extended version of the paper "Economic networks in and out of equilibrium" (arXiv:1309.1875)

Countries
Italy, Netherlands
Keywords

HB Economic Theory, FOS: Economics and business, Physics - Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability, FOS: Physical sciences, QA Mathematics, Quantitative Finance - General Finance, General Finance (q-fin.GN), Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability (physics.data-an)

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    15
    popularity
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    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
15
Top 10%
Top 10%
Average
Green
bronze