
doi: 10.1086/451440
Political change and development in Third World nations have been characterized by violent upheavals and sudden major shifts in government policies. Examples of discontinuities in the process of political change abound. Iran, Nicaragua, Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay are only a few of the countries that come to mind. Existing empirical studies of political change and development have not been capable of a formal analysis of discontinuous political transitions. In this paper, we propose a theory of political dynamics capable of explaining endogenously the abrupt political shifts experienced in the last decade by a majority of developing nations. Section I presents a theory of political change. Section II contains a brief discussion of the estimation techniques. Section III presents the data. Finally, Sections IV, V, and VI contain a discussion of the results.
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