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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao International Journa...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
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Forest fire risk assessment using point process modelling of fire occurrence and Monte Carlo fire simulation

Authors: Hyeyoung Woo; Woodam Chung; Jonathan M. Graham; Byungdoo Lee;

Forest fire risk assessment using point process modelling of fire occurrence and Monte Carlo fire simulation

Abstract

Risk assessment of forest fires requires an integrated estimation of fire occurrence probability and burn probability because fire spread is largely influenced by ignition locations as well as fuels, weather, topography and other environmental factors. This study aims to assess forest fire risk over a large forested landscape using both fire occurrence and burn probabilities. First, we use a spatial point processing method to generate a fire occurrence probability surface. We then perform a Monte Carlo fire spread simulation using multiple fire ignition points generated from the fire occurrence surface to compute burn probability across the landscape. Potential loss per land parcel due to forest fire is assessed as the combination of burn probability and government-appraised property values. We applied our methodology to the municipal boundary of Gyeongju in the Republic of Korea. The results show that the density of fire occurrence is positively associated with low elevation, moderate slope, coniferous land cover, distance to roads, high density of tombs and interaction among fire ignition locations. A correlation analysis among fire occurrence probability, burn probability, land property value and potential value loss indicates that fire risk in the study landscape is largely associated with the spatial pattern of burn probability.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
14
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
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