
AbstractNovelties are a familiar part of daily life. They are also fundamental to the evolution of biological systems, human society and technology. By opening new possibilities, one novelty can pave the way for others in a process that Kauffman has called “expanding the adjacent possible”. The dynamics of correlated novelties, however, have yet to be quantified empirically or modeled mathematically. Here we propose a simple mathematical model that mimics the process of exploring a physical, biological, or conceptual space that enlarges whenever a novelty occurs. The model, a generalization of Polya's urn, predicts statistical laws for the rate at which novelties happen (Heaps' law) and for the probability distribution on the space explored (Zipf's law), as well as signatures of the process by which one novelty sets the stage for another. We test these predictions on four data sets of human activity: the edit events of Wikipedia pages, the emergence of tags in annotation systems, the sequence of words in texts and listening to new songs in online music catalogues. By quantifying the dynamics of correlated novelties, our results provide a starting point for a deeper understanding of the adjacent possible and its role in biological, cultural and technological evolution.
Social and Information Networks (cs.SI), FOS: Computer and information sciences, Physics - Physics and Society, Models, Statistical, probability distribution, Entropy, biological systems, FOS: Physical sciences, Computer Science - Social and Information Networks, Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph), dynamics of correlated novelties, Article, Zipf's law, Exploratory Behavior, Humans, Learning, predicts statistical laws, Music, Probability
Social and Information Networks (cs.SI), FOS: Computer and information sciences, Physics - Physics and Society, Models, Statistical, probability distribution, Entropy, biological systems, FOS: Physical sciences, Computer Science - Social and Information Networks, Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph), dynamics of correlated novelties, Article, Zipf's law, Exploratory Behavior, Humans, Learning, predicts statistical laws, Music, Probability
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 162 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 1% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Top 10% | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% |
