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Trading Network Predicts Stock Price

شبكة التداول تتوقع سعر السهم
Authors: Xiao Qian Sun; Hua Shen; Cheng Xue;

Trading Network Predicts Stock Price

Abstract

AbstractStock price prediction is an important and challenging problem for studying financial markets. Existing studies are mainly based on the time series of stock price or the operation performance of listed company. In this paper, we propose to predict stock price based on investors' trading behavior. For each stock, we characterize the daily trading relationship among its investors using a trading network. We then classify the nodes of trading network into three roles according to their connectivity pattern. Strong Granger causality is found between stock price and trading relationship indices, i.e., the fraction of trading relationship among nodes with different roles. We further predict stock price by incorporating these trading relationship indices into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 51 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of trading relationship indices.

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Keywords

Financial economics, Economics and Econometrics, Economics, Social Sciences, FOS: Mechanical engineering, Cost price, Econophysics: Complexity in Financial Markets, Management Science and Operations Research, Horse, Article, Decision Sciences, FOS: Economics and business, Trading strategy, Engineering, Series (stratigraphy), Business, Econometrics, Biology, Stock Market Prediction, Stock market, Stock trading, Paleontology, Predicting Stock Market Trends and Movements, Asset Pricing and Market Efficiency, Mechanical engineering, Stock price, Economics, Econometrics and Finance, Market Correlations, Granger causality, Stock (firearms), Volume-weighted average price, Algorithmic trading, Stock exchange, Finance

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    popularity
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
35
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
gold