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Towards scientific forecasting of magmatic eruptions

Authors: Valerio Acocella; Maurizio Ripepe; Eleonora Rivalta; Aline Peltier; Federico Galetto; Erouscilla Joseph;

Towards scientific forecasting of magmatic eruptions

Abstract

Forecasting eruptions is a fundamental goal of volcanology. However,difficulties in identifying eruptive precursors, fragmented approachesand lack of resources make eruption forecasting difficult to achieve.In this Review, we explore the first-order scientific approaches thatare essential to progress towards forecasting the time and location ofmagmatic eruptions. Forecasting in time uses different monitoringtechniques, depending on the conduit-opening mode. Ascendingmagma can create a new conduit (closed-conduit eruptions), usea previously open conduit (open-conduit eruptions) or flow below asolidified magma plug (semi-open-conduit eruptions). Closed-conduiteruptions provide stronger monitoring signals often detected monthsin advance, but they commonly occur at volcanoes with poorlyknown pre-eruptive behaviour. Open-conduit eruptions, associatedwith low-viscosity magmas, provide more subtle signals oftendetected only minutes in advance, although their higher eruptionfrequency promotes more testable approaches. Semi-open-conduiteruptions show intermediate behaviours, potentially displaying clearpre-eruptive signals days in advance and often recurring repeatedly.However, any given volcano can experience multiple conduit-openingmodes, sometimes simultaneously, requiring combinations offorecasting approaches. Forecasting the location of vent openingrelies on determining the stresses controlling magma propagation,deformation and seismic monitoring. The use of physics-based modelsto assimilate monitoring data and observations will substantiallyimprove forecasting, but requires a deeper understanding ofpre-eruptive processes and more extensive monitoring data. 

Countries
France, Italy, Germany, France
Keywords

[SDU] Sciences of the Universe [physics], Volcanic eruptions Forecasting Magma Volcano

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
22
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green