
pmid: 24937647
pmc: PMC4061699
AbstractTwo epidemic waves of an avian influenza A (H7N9) virus have so far affected China. Most human cases have been attributable to poultry exposure at live-poultry markets, where most positive isolates were sampled. The potential geographic extent of potential re-emerging epidemics is unknown, as are the factors associated with it. Using newly assembled data sets of the locations of 8,943 live-poultry markets in China and maps of environmental correlates, we develop a statistical model that accurately predicts the risk of H7N9 market infection across Asia. Local density of live-poultry markets is the most important predictor of H7N9 infection risk in markets, underscoring their key role in the spatial epidemiology of H7N9, alongside other poultry, land cover and anthropogenic predictor variables. Identification of areas in Asia with high suitability for H7N9 infection enhances our capacity to target biosurveillance and control, helping to restrict the spread of this important disease.
Epidemiology, Influenza A virus subtype H5N1, Avian influenza virus, avian influenza virus, FOS: Health sciences, Influenza A Virus, H7N9 Subtype, Poultry, Food Supply, Agricultural and Biological Sciences, Identification (biology), Biosurveillance, Zoonoses, Internal medicine, animal diseases, Geography, Ecology, poultry, Commerce, Life Sciences, Epidémiologie, Sciences bio-médicales et agricoles, Highly pathogenic, Virus, Infectious Diseases, Environmental health, Archaeology, Regression Analysis, Medicine, Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers and Zoonotic Infections, China, Asia, Dynamics of Livestock Disease Transmission and Control, Risk Assessment, Article, Virology, 616, Influenza, Human, Health Sciences, Animals, Humans, Biology, Models, Statistical, livestock, Influenza in Birds, FOS: Biological sciences, marketing, Influenza Virus Research and Epidemiology, Agronomy and Crop Science, Epidemiological Patterns
Epidemiology, Influenza A virus subtype H5N1, Avian influenza virus, avian influenza virus, FOS: Health sciences, Influenza A Virus, H7N9 Subtype, Poultry, Food Supply, Agricultural and Biological Sciences, Identification (biology), Biosurveillance, Zoonoses, Internal medicine, animal diseases, Geography, Ecology, poultry, Commerce, Life Sciences, Epidémiologie, Sciences bio-médicales et agricoles, Highly pathogenic, Virus, Infectious Diseases, Environmental health, Archaeology, Regression Analysis, Medicine, Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers and Zoonotic Infections, China, Asia, Dynamics of Livestock Disease Transmission and Control, Risk Assessment, Article, Virology, 616, Influenza, Human, Health Sciences, Animals, Humans, Biology, Models, Statistical, livestock, Influenza in Birds, FOS: Biological sciences, marketing, Influenza Virus Research and Epidemiology, Agronomy and Crop Science, Epidemiological Patterns
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