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Geophysical Research Letters
Article . 1996 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
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Reply to “A note on evaluating VAN earthquake predictions,” by G‐Akis Tselentis and Nicos S. Melis

Authors: P. Varotsos; M. Lazaridou;

Reply to “A note on evaluating VAN earthquake predictions,” by G‐Akis Tselentis and Nicos S. Melis

Abstract

The intriguing suggestion by Tselentis and Melis [1996], that the tolerance limit in predicting the epicentral location should depend on earthquake magnitude, is discussed.Tselentis and Melis applied the procedure of Mulargia and Gasperini [1992] to an ideally perfect earthquake prediction method, which achieved to predict successfully all the seventeen earthquakes with Ms ≥ 5.3 that occurred within the area 36–41°N, 19–25°E during the three years period 1983–1985, and found that these ideal predictions can be ascribed to chance. Their application clearly demonstrates that the procedure of Mulargia and Gasperini [1992] is questionable. In this Reply we also give a precise example of statistics, which indicates how Mulargia and Gasperini's [1992] procedure strongly violates Poisson restrictions, and hence leads to unacceptable results.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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