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Geophysical Research Letters
Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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Geophysical Research Letters
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Changes in Extreme Precipitation and Landslides Over High Mountain Asia

Authors: Thomas Stanley; Thomas Stanley; Dalia Kirschbaum; Sarah B. Kapnick; Salvatore Pascale;

Changes in Extreme Precipitation and Landslides Over High Mountain Asia

Abstract

AbstractHigh Mountain Asia is impacted by extreme monsoonal rainfall that triggers landslides in large proportions relative to global distributions, resulting in substantial human impacts and damage to infrastructure each year. Previous landslide research has qualitatively estimated how patterns in landslide activity may change based on climate change scenarios. We present the first quantitative view of potential modulation in future landslide activity over the High Mountain Asia region leveraging a new landslide hazard model and precipitation data from satellite and Global Climate Model sources. In doing so, we find that the rate of increase in landslide activity at the end of the century is expected to be greatest over areas covered by current glaciers and glacial lakes, potentially exacerbating the impacts of cascading hazards on populations downstream. This work demonstrates the potential of Global Climate Models and satellite‐based precipitation estimates to characterize landslide hazards at time scales affected by climate change.

Keywords

High Mountain Asia, Global Climate Models, remote sensing, extreme precipitation, QC801-809, Geophysics. Cosmic physics, extreme precipitation; Global Climate Models; High Mountain Asia; landslide modeling; remote sensing, landslide modeling

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    110
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
110
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 1%
Green
gold