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Geophysical Research Letters
Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
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Geophysical Research Letters
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Climatic Responses to Future Trans‐Arctic Shipping

Authors: Scott R. Stephenson; Wenshan Wang; Charles S. Zender; Hailong Wang; Steven J. Davis; Philip J. Rasch;

Climatic Responses to Future Trans‐Arctic Shipping

Abstract

AbstractAs global temperatures increase, sea ice loss will increasingly enable commercial shipping traffic to cross the Arctic Ocean, where the ships' gas and particulate emissions may have strong regional effects. Here we investigate impacts of shipping emissions on Arctic climate using a fully coupled Earth system model (CESM 1.2.2) and a suite of newly developed projections of 21st‐century trans‐Arctic shipping emissions. We find that trans‐Arctic shipping will reduce Arctic warming by nearly 1 °C by 2099, due to sulfate‐driven liquid water cloud formation. Cloud fraction and liquid water path exhibit significant positive trends, cooling the lower atmosphere and surface. Positive feedbacks from sea ice growth‐induced albedo increases and decreased downwelling longwave radiation due to reduced water vapor content amplify the cooling relative to the shipping‐free Arctic. Our findings thus point to the complexity in Arctic climate responses to increased shipping traffic, justifying further study and policy considerations as trade routes open.

Country
United States
Keywords

Cloud feedbacks, Sea ice, Research Letters, Climate Action, Shipping, Arctic, Emissions, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Earth system modeling

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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
39
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
gold