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Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
Article . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
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“World avoided” simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model

Authors: Rolando R. Garcia; Douglas E. Kinnison; Daniel R. Marsh;

“World avoided” simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model

Abstract

We use the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, coupled to a deep ocean model, to investigate the impact of continued growth of halogenated ozone depleting substances (ODS) in the absence of the Montreal Protocol. We confirm the previously reported result that the growth of ODS leads to a global collapse of the ozone layer in mid‐21st century, with column amounts falling to 100 DU or less at all latitudes. We also show that heterogeneous activation of chlorine in the lower stratosphere hastens this collapse but is not essential to produce it. The growth of ODS, which are also greenhouse gases, produces a radiative forcing of 4 W m−2by 2070, nearly equal that of the non‐ODS greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, and N2O in the RCP4.5 scenario of IPCC. This leads to surface warming of over 2 K in the tropics, 6 K in the Arctic, and close to 4 K in Antarctica in 2070 compared to the beginning of the century. We explore the reversibility of these impacts following complete cessation of ODS emissions in the mid‐2050s. We find that impacts are reversed on various time scales, depending on the atmospheric lifetime of the ODS that cause them. Thus ozone in the lower stratosphere in the tropics and subtropics recovers very quickly because the ODS that release chlorine and bromine there (e.g., methyl chloroform and methyl bromide) have short atmospheric lifetimes and are removed within a few years. On the other hand, ozone depletion in the polar caps and global radiative forcing depend on longer‐lived ODS, such that much of these impacts persist through the end of our simulations in 2070.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
29
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
bronze